I took the weekend off from blogging, but the regular general election diary posts will resume later today. However, while I was out yesterday an idea struck me for a prediction contest for a difference.
There are plenty of people out there asking for your election predictions in terms of how many seats different parties will win etc, but none that I’m aware of asking you to predict what this will mean to the electoral geography of the country. So that’s what I want this contest to consider.
Back in December, prompted by a thought about the Copeland by-election, I catalogued all the three-party constituency tripoints in the UK. These are the points where three constituencies meet, and each of those three constituencies are represented by a different party. At the time I wrote that, a point near Grizedale Tarn below Fairfield was where Labour Copeland, Tory Penrith & The Border and Liberal Democrat Westmorland & Lonsdale all met, though the Tory win in the by-election means that is no longer a three-party tripoint, but the Three Shire Stone near Wrynose Pass now is.
So here’s the challenge: name 10 places that will be three-party tripoints after the election. The winner will be the person who gets the most correct, and if there’s a tie between entries then the person who identified the most new tripoints (ones that didn’t exist when Parliament was dissolved and so aren’t mentioned in this post) will be the winner. You only need to name the three constituencies, not who’ll win them, and you can guess at any time up until polls close at 10pm on June 8th. The prize will merely be pride at winning one of the most obscure political prediction contests, unless someone generous out there wants to volunteer something better. Post your answer in the comments, then sit back and pay close attention to the electoral map as it fills in to see how well you’ve done.
If you want to check out where the boundaries are, and which constituencies share tripoints, then the OS’s Election Maps has the official boundaries and the BBC’s 2015 election site has a decent map of who won which seat.
Originally published at www.nickbarlow.com on May 8, 2017.